Jack Han wrote a cool piece the other day about the shootout and game theory. He had a number of different ideas, but I want to address one in particular.
I believe his point was as follows.
“As a shooter in the shootout, if you are unpredictable, the goalie won’t know what is coming and will play you straight up. If, however, you have one prominent move and a lesser-used secondary option, the goalie is likely to know that and cheat, allowing you to score more often on your secondary option, which overall will increase your effectiveness.”
I want to look at this point within the unrealistic context of an NHL goalie having complete information on the shooter’s true shootout talent, ie their base rate, and the percentage of the time in which he uses a primary move relative to a secondary one.
So let’s say you’re a league average shootout performer with two moves (let’s say a backhand deke and a backhand-forehand deke). When the goalie plays reactionary, you score on 33% of your shots. You can, however, decide to adjust this rate by leading the goalie into guessing by using your primary move significantly more than your secondary move. The goalie, as I mentioned above, knows how much you use each move, just not in which cases you will use which.
There’s an important difference between always taking the middle ground in an argument and recognizing nuance where many find none. Analytics are a case in which it is important to remember, whether it’s with corsi, or PDO, or fighting, or any other issue, that because of the imperfection of our metrics, our understanding of psychological factors at play, and our understanding of just what goes on behind closed doors, that what the numbers tell you isn’t always entirely accurate. This nuance is something that I’ve tried to emphasize with this blog over the past few months, and will continue to push. There isn’t a middle ground just because somebody says there should be…there’s a middle ground because of the number of factors in play that simply haven’t been taken into account by any model we have at our disposal right now.
There was a report published today that the Montreal Canadiens have, or had, or might have had interest in Martin Brodeur as a backup goalie to Carey Price. I’m shady on the details not because I’m journalistically ignorant, but because I don’t care. Brodeur is, frankly, no longer an NHL calibre goalie, the Canadiens are set (or, I guess, already over capacity) in net, and to be quite honest none of this has anything to do with why I’m writing this piece.
I’m writing on Martin Brodeur because Joe Posnanski answered a mailbag question about Derek Jeter today that reminded me of a topic I had been meaning to write about for some time: Longevity.